VCFX 汇评


 
2015年汇市怎么样
 
美联储预计将在明年6月 左右升息,但通胀疲弱,原油价格挫跌,薪资增长乏力使得联储升息的时间点存疑。据对55位策略师的调查,其中大多数人认为,相比欧洲央行或日本央行进行更 多货币宽松的可能性,美联储升息对主要货币汇率的波动影响更大。据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的最新数据,随着美国经济稳步增长,失业率下降,最 近一周投机客持有的美元多头仓位升至六年最高。随着美联储逐步退出刺激措施,美元今年一路上涨;欧元和日圆则受挫,因投资者预期在未来许多年里,欧洲和日 本将维持宽松政策,经济增长亦将处於停滞状态。

  “2015年上半年汇市的主旋律是欧元走疲,下半年将是美元走强,” 更多详细

 
12/12/2015 @ 19:27 GMT
 
 
欧元之勉强
 
昨天相对来说值得注意的变 化是欧元,因为欧洲央行总裁给出了通缩倾向朝现实转变的情况下欧洲央行将要面对的选择。总裁说货币更强势对于政策来说越来越重要,而此时欧元方面的变化显 示出市场还未确信下个月可能会出现的行动。不过还是有人担心,不管欧洲央行宣布什么样的措施,对欧元都不会有实质(负面)影响。离欧洲央行会议召开只有两 个月时间了,但由于欧洲央行自己制造的预期,我们等待的时间会显得很长,而这段时间里欧元可能会变得越来越急躁。 今天最大的焦点来自乌克兰,那里局势仍然很紧张,而且今天各大国领导人之间还会举行更多谈判。这种局面会让市场保持警惕,比如前一天亚洲市场已经出现类似 的苗头。我们发现日本的通胀数据比预期要疲软一些。这种情况,再加上警惕的国际环境,限制了美元日元的上升。同时值得注意的是英国零售数据的发布,二月出 现大幅上涨以后可能会有连续的下降。英镑还是保持了一种看涨的局面,因为英镑是过去一周里唯一一个表现比美元好的货币。此外,新元和澳元则表现不佳。这一 周之初 CPI 数据疲软导致澳元下跌,回到了0.93 之上。要注意前一天美元人民币移动到了 6.25 之上,在继续过去将近三周里人民币残酷贬值的过程。
 
25/04/2015 @ 18:26 GMT
 
新元忽视新西兰央行对外汇的担忧
 
在主要货币没有出现太大波 动的局面下,这一周令人感兴趣的变化就是澳元/新元。由于新西兰央行最新发布的声明和利率决定,这两个货币出现了进一步的逆转。关键利率上升到 3% 是非常有可能的;不过声明中那种相对强硬的语气倒是让人没有想到。新西兰央行说通胀压力在增加,而且 “未来两年内可能会继续下去”。声明从整体上预见未来可能还会有一次加息,不过他们还说不相信当前的汇率水平可以持续下去,并且在三月和四月会议的声明中 去掉了 “长期” 这样的措辞。这种情况可以视为一种信号,就是他们不太满意当前的利率水平,因为自从上次会议以来汇率已经上升了 1%;而前一天利率决定出来后又上升了 0.35%。要注意澳元/新元已经下降了超过 1%,原因就是这周通胀数据发布后澳元出现了疲软局面。 今天主要的焦点就是今天上午德国的 IFO 信心数据,数据整体上从 110.7 下降了一些,不过要注意的是德国商业信心的关键测量数据仍然是三年以来的高点。欧元区和欧元方面比较令人关注的就是通缩风险。而欧洲央行会如何应对则会是 两周以后欧洲央行会议上更加令人关注的焦点。
 
24/04/2015 @ 21:35 GMT
 
 
美元疲软让英镑达到四年以来新高
 
今天是这一周工作日的结 束,随后是万圣节的来到。细想起来,这一周最值得回忆的就是通胀疲软,不仅发生在英国和欧元区,甚至穿越大西洋到了美国。昨天美联储主席耶伦显示了温和的 一面,她提到通胀走低带来的风险比走高时要更大。这一番言论让美元走低并且丢掉了继四月初的大范围损失之后所得的收获,而这一变化再次显示出人们预期 2015 年美元强势的共识还没有体现出来。尤其是昨天,随着失业率数据的发布,美元疲软让英镑推到四年以来的新高。这种情况让英镑美元超越了 1.6820。耶伦的话并不意味着美联储的紧缩会有改变,而只是显示出紧缩更有可能会慢下来,而不是加速。 这周之初英国的通胀下降,而昨天欧元区的通胀数据也比预期要低,达到自 2009 年以来的最低水平。而众多央行仍然会以宽松的货币政策来主导市场。但是从欧洲央行来看,量化宽松方面的辩论仍然会继续下去,直到 Mario Draghi 开始行动,期间欧元可能会得到巩固。这样的证据就出现在昨天,期间欧元面对通胀数据疲软只是眨了眨眼睛,似乎不为所动。
 
17/04/2015 @ 17:31 GMT
 
 
英国通胀数据发布前英镑处于压力之下
 
今天上午我们已经发现英镑 正处在压力之下,在此之后今天的 CPI 数据才发布,同比上升了 1.6%,相比上个月的 1.7% 是下降了,但和英格兰银行的预期一致。我们应该看到月环比数字从 0.5% 下降到了 0.2%,而运输价格可能又是造成这种下降的最大因素。看看一年前的油价,只比今天高了大约 10 便士。今年到目前为止每个月的平均价格都会比上个月减少一个便士,而对驾驶员来说幸运的是财政大臣没有提高燃油税。这意味着 CPI 可能比预期的 1.6% 要低,而英镑美元的疲软则看起来像是交易者在调整自身以迎接这样的结果。英镑美元今天上午触到低点 1.6686,在我们写这片报道时仅仅在此低点之上徘徊。因此,如果 CPI 疲软的话此货币对可能会继续走低,但如果发生与预期不符的任何情况,则疲软可能会蔓延开去。 今天晚些时候美联储主席耶伦将在纽约发表讲话,谈她对世界最大经济体以及美联储货币政策研究的看法。到目前为止她对政策的看法一直有点让人琢磨不透。上次 她说加息会在紧缩结束六个月之后开始实行,这让市场有点惊慌。她的言论的确需要多加磨砺。不管怎样,今天下午外汇市场风险上升的威胁仍然很高,因为投资者 仍然想知道美元强势的共识何时会成真。
 
15/04/2015 @ 17:23 GMT
 
美元逆转
 
现在美元完全逆转了从三月 中到四月初的上涨,而市场对来自美联储信息的解读也解释了这种上涨以及随后的逆转。要记得是耶伦在三月份的会议上的发言导致了起初的上涨,她尖锐地指出加 息可能在紧缩结束六个月后来临。昨天的会议内容并不是那么清晰,这也许并不让人吃惊,但却让美元疲软并且回到了三月会议之前的普遍水平。这次会议内容里面 谈到已发布的利率预测 “可能被误解为会导致一次变动……变成一种不那么宽松的应对功能”。由于这个会议内容利率期货上升了十个基点(反映出利率会走低的预期),而 2015 年末对利率的定价会回到美联储会议之前的水平。总之,这个时期已经显示出一句评论会影响市场到何种程度。 前一天澳元再次抓住了人们的注意力,因为最新的劳动市场数据而再次上升到了 0.9400 之上。新的劳动市场数据显示出整体就业上升了 1 万 8 千而利率下降到了 5.8%(此前为 6.1%)。因此我们再次达到今年的新高点,而且有可能澳洲联储会在年底之前加息。今天,我们有点关注英镑,因为有英格兰银行的利率决定,但应该不太可能 出现显著的变动。英镑还是保持了这周初生产数据发布后出现的上涨,欧洲开盘时英镑美元只低于 1.68。
 
10/04/2015 @ 16:49 GMT
 
Euro On Tenterhook Ahead Of ECB
 
The euro had been stubbornly rising throughout the past few days even in the face of lower inflation and GDP data, but yesterday for the first time this week it showed signs of vulnerability. Despite Mario Draghi making it perfectly clear that he believes inflation will pick up, the consensus remains that even if monetary easing of some sort is not announced today, it will come in the next few months.
 
03/04/2015 @ 07:29 GMT
 
Euro Data Supports Little Action From Draghi
 
The manufacturing PMIs across the Eurozone all came in just above expectations which provided the single currency with continued support. This sort of data goes someway to justify Mario Draghi’s stance when it comes to monetary policy and serves to further support the consensus view that no action will be taken at tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Even unemployment for the region remained at 11.9% when it was expected to tick higher to 12.0%, but the euro bears will point to the softer Italian unemployment data as evidence that all is still not well in the Eurozone.
 
02/04/2015 @ 08:49 GMT
 
Euro Continues To Defy Gravity
 
As we commence Q2 of 2015 so far the year has not played out as expected. Indices have faltered near their highs when most have been expecting them to carry on higher with little resistance and the dollar has been far from strengthening. Even the ECB hasn’t been playing ball. The consensus has been for some time now that they would undertake further monetary easing as opposed to just the odd interest rate cut, but Mario Draghi refuses to budge.
 
01/04/2015 @ 07:30 GMT
 
Coasting
 
FX markets are coasting into the end of the quarter. By that we mean that the majors are not in the mood to push the trends that have been in place in recent weeks. To that end, cable has been hugging close to the 1.65 level, after the high earlier in the month of 1.6786 and the single currency is around 1% from the high for the year recorded earlier this month. The exception to this has been the Aussie, which has been gaining in confidence since the start of the month, making a new high for the year at 0.9158.
 
25/03/2015 @ 08:54 GMT
 
The Home Straight
 
We are entering the last week of the current quarter, which has turned out to be one of mixed fortunes for FX. The general thinking was that tapering from the US Fed would see the dollar continue to gain at the expense of other currencies, especially the euro given the potential for further ECB easing. The dollar story has not panned out as expected, currently almost exactly at the same point at which it started the quarter on the dollar index.
 
27/01/2015 @ 08:26 GMT
 
The New Reality Of Higher Rates
 
There is reason to take some comfort from yesterday's price action. After the re-pricing of interest rate expectations (higher) in the wake of Yellen's clumsy verbal acrobatics, equity markets managed to stage a respectable recovery on the back of better economic data, which offers some comfort that the prospect of higher rates (the implication from better data) is not going to lead to a drastic re-pricing of equities. We saw a similar tone during Asia trade, with Chinese equities staging a decent bounce back of nearly 3% on the Shanghai composite.
 
21/01/2015 @ 08:41 GMT
 
Time To Get Used To A World Of Rising Rates
 
The FOMC meeting gave the dollar a big boost last night as the new Federal Reserve Janet Yellen made it clear that interest rate hikes can be expected in 2015 and probably the early part. Investors that have been debating over when the rate hikes will start are clearer now and so the knee-jerk reaction was to buy the dollar. Few currencies were safe as EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD all sold off and USDJPY spiked, with one of the most pronounced move coming against the Yen.
 
22/12/2015 @ 08:25 GMT
 
Sterling Eyed Ahead Of Budget, Then FOMC
 
Sterling lost ground yesterday ahead of today’s annual Budget from the UK Chancellor’s Budget, but it still has come way to go to unwind its recent strength, in particular against the dollar after GBPUSD hit a four year high last month.
 
19/11/2015 @ 08:16 GMT
 
Supporting The Euro
 
The euro is coming under some pressure early on during the European trading session, but this follows from what has been a relatively strong performance, which saw EURUSD push more than 2 year highs at the end of last week. There have been two principle drivers to this move. Firstly, the ECB last week gave no strong indications that further easing was on the cards at their monthly press conference. Secondly, the depreciation of the Chinese yuan has seen the euro benefit on the perception that the central bank is shifting reserves away from the dollar.
 
12/09/2015 @ 08:13 GMT
 
Remaining Nervous
 
As always, the desire is for clarity from the US jobs numbers. The reality is that we are only slightly wiser after the event. The headline establishment survey number was stronger than expected at 175k, with positive prior month revisions, whilst the unemployment rate (based on a survey of households), nudged higher to 6.7%. The underlying details suggested that the weather did not have a major impact.
 
11/08/2015 @ 09:10 GMT
 
Euro Defies Gravity Ahead Of Nonfarm
 
The dollar took a beating yesterday as investors rushed into the euro following the ECB meeting that saw President Mario Draghi defy market expectations. An increase in growth forecasts and lack of further monetary easing saw the single currency spike with EURUSD hitting a fresh 2 year closing high. Not even sterling was immune to the euro’s advances as EURGBP hit a three week high and this morning it’s knocking on the door of 0.8300.
 
24/07/2015 @ 08:29 GMT
 
Improved Eurozone Sentiment Makes ECB Decision Tough Today
 
The dollar has been steadily recouping some ground overnight in particular against the Yen as USDJPY gets itself back to the 102.75 level and could have the impetus behind it to test 103.00 again, not seen since January. The normalisation of markets since the beginning of the week has been stark so today investors can focus on one of the major risk events that traders have been building up to for quite some time now and that’s the ECB meeting later today. Safe to say the BOE meeting is not considered such a risk so the focus will be on the Euro rather than sterling.
 
06/06/2015 @ 08:14 GMT
 
Central Banks Will Be Watching Busy Day For Data
 
Things have truly settled down since the week end and Monday’s frantic panic. The safe haven play has been unwound and so it’s back to normal for now with the dollar seeing little traction and yet to truly gain the backing of investors, despite the expectation of further tapering from the Federal Reserve throughout the year. Overnight the Aussie spiked following some better than expected services and GDP data almost hitting 0.9000 against the dollar but now currently sits at 0.8970. The services PMIs remain the theme of today with data from across Europe and the UK this morning.
 
05/03/2015 @ 08:29 GMT